Four wins in a row have the Portland Timbers in the top half of MLS’ Western Conference standings. On the horizon, however, one of the few teams higher in the table is about to make their first visit to Providence Park. Come noon on Saturday, Los Angeles FC will get their first taste of Rose City soccer (12pm PT, FOX).
In LAFC’s early success, though, the Timbers find an opportunity, one similar to the one that arrived three weeks ago. Then, an undefeated New York City FC showed up to face a team that had just won its first game in six, and while some may have foreseen a Timbers breakthrough, nobody would have reasonably predicted a 3-0 result.
That weekend gave Portland fans their first glimpse of this team’s potential, but whether that potential is realized can only be tested against more of the league’s toughest competition. Although LAFC is in its first year, the talent in their first XI rivals any team’s in Major League Soccer. Another strong day again one of the league’s pacesetters would reveal even more of Portland’s future.
Here is our weekly snapshot of the game ahead in the KeyBank Scouting Report:
1. The shutout streak may have to continue
Los Angeles FC’s overall record – 6-2-2 with 22 goals scored, 16 allowed – hints at a team that’s fit into MLS’ current moment, one that’s cultivating goal creation above goal prevention. But as we discussed in Know Your Opponent, the wide view of LAFC’s season is slightly deceiving. Of their 16 goals allowed, nine have come over the course of an aberrational 120 minutes, with goalkeeper Tyler Miller having already kept four clean sheets this season.
If that trend continues, another streak may have to survive for the Timbers to stay on course. It has been 279 minutes since Portland last conceded, and that score was an own goal against Minnesota United FC off the head of Bill Tuiloma. The last time an opponent scored of their own accord against the Timbers was 296 minutes ago, over which time Portland has registered all four of their victories this season.
With 36 goals between them, both Portland and LAFC have proven they can score, but in their most recent performances, each have shown one goal could hold up. The first score of any professional soccer games is huge, but on Saturday, it could also prove decisive.
2. Blanco is rightly in focus
If you had to pick the player most likely to score Portland’s first goal, form says there’s only one option. After a debut season that saw him score every 347.8 minutes, Sebastián Blanco is more than halved that rate this year, his five goals coming once every 156.2 minutes during his second year in Portland.
If their paces continue, that surge has Fanendo Adi and Diego Valeri set to combine for 19 assists this season. Odds are, they won’t. Whether from Blanco finding his level or defenses adjusting (or, both), the goalscoring from the Timbers’ attacking three will likely spread out. We won’t reach game 34 of the 2018 season with Blanco matching his teammates’ combined goalscoring numbers.
How that leveling out unfolds, though, could be more interesting than the players’ final numbers. Do teams become wary of collapsing around Adi when he receives the ball? Do defenders start cheating more toward Valeri when he’s venturing past the right channel? Do midfielders start marking Blanco when he comes in from the left, and how does that create space in other parts on the field?
Blanco’s goalscoring will probably slow down, but if it does so because of opponents’ adjustments, more opportunities will arise for Portland. Either way, “Chucky” remains in focus.
3. Collapse and play the way to move forward
Speaking of Adi collapsing defenses, one of the lingering concepts coming out of the win over Seattle Sounders FC is how Portland can execute in the space in front of opponents’ defenses. We talked about in on Monday, in this week’s Timbers Inside PTFC feature, but the concept will continue to be important going forward. If Portland’s counterattack is dangerous enough for teams to stay back, set up deep, and guard against transition, the ability to build off play directly to Adi could discourage that approach.
We highlighted the four times Portland snapped Seattle’s defense, but ESPN’s Taylor Twellman was right in saying that the Timbers have to do that quicker, and more often. That’s part of the process we talked about, one that needs to continue moving forward. Among LAFC head coach Bob Bradley’s strengths is his ability to craft an organized, consistent defense, and while it’s unlikely he’ll commit the same numbers that Seattle’s Brian Schmetzer did a week ago, Bradley’s acumen could make it seem like an extra man is behind the ball.
That makes Portland’s execution even more important. Until they prove they can consistently play through defenses, opponents will dare the Timbers to break them down. Wide to in, quick touches through the line – the play around Adi, through Valeri and Blanco, will have to improve. It’s the only way the Timbers’ attack can keep defenses honest.
